Expect your Coffee Fix to Cost You More

Coffee is a morning staple for many. It’s a staple that is going to get more expensive in the coming months. Droughts in Brazil and Vietnam, two of the largest coffee producers in the world, are severely curtailing production. Decreases in supply mean prices will go up.

Increases in coffee prices are not new.  There have been many food products that have increased in price over the past four years.  According to Statistics Canada, coffee increased in price by more than 22% in the last four years (although they came down 1% in the past year). Coffee is especially susceptible to changes in the temperature. Coffee is the canary in the coal mine for warming as quantity and quality of production has been decreasing due to small changes in average temperatures across the globe. This is likely to continue.

The droughts in Brazil and Vietnam are likely to have a more profound impact on price in the coming months. The degree to which these significant price increases come down depends on what happens in the next growing season. Continued drought could further increase the cost of coffee due to ongoing shortages and depletion of existing stocks.

The industry will work at improving resilience to both the gradual warming and increased incidence and severity of extreme weather events. Where possible, production will move further up mountain sides or new growing areas will be found. There may also be an opportunity to develop more resilient coffee plants which can better withstand climate induced changes. None of that happens quickly so expect your coffee fix to cost you more in the coming months.

key words: coffee, price, climate change, inflation, agriculture

Recommended citation format: von Massow, M. "Coffee Fix to Cost You More". Food Focus Guelph (137), Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Guelph, Oct 1, 2024.